Cold-season rain
Medium confidence
Often wetter (strong events)
Southwest regional composite · cold season
More reliable in strong El Niño winters; weaker events mixed.
What El Niño means in Phoenix
Analog language only: not a local forecast.
Live ENSO status
What this usually means here
Stronger El Niño winters have more often brought above-average cold-season precipitation across parts of the U.S. Southwest, including much of Arizona: the same strength-dependent signal climate.gov groups with southern California.
Weaker and moderate episodes have been much more mixed. Official products are Southwest / climate-division composites, not a Phoenix-city ENSO index.
Background reading (external):
What El Niño winters often mean here
Based on Southwest / Arizona regional composites: not a Phoenix-only official meter.
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