Is it El Niño?

We're in El Niño: moderate.

Pacific ocean warmth vs average

warmer than average

cooler than average

Each bar = one official 3-month Pacific season

NOAA CPC · RONI

NOAA CPC · Method

+1.36 CPC RONI

Jun–Aug 2026 Official season (RONI)

NOAA CPC · RONI · JJA 2026

Last stored fetch: 12 Oct 2026

Official season is not the latest weekly headline

Strong El Niños side by side

Each line follows one famous El Niño year, month by month. The bold line is this year.

Season-by-season Pacific warmth during strong El Niño yearsaverageMayJulSepNovJanMar1972–731982–831997–982015–1620261972–731982–831997–982015–162026

Pacific warmth by season: NOAA CPC RONI index · NOAA CPC RONI data file

Is this the strongest El Niño ever?

Not a record yet

This year next to 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

See the record chart

How strong could it get?

NOAA's latest official chances for how strong El Niño could be this fall and winter, split into plain categories.

El Niño strength chancesOct–Dec outlookStrong: 2%Very strong: 98%98%WeakModerateStrongVery strong

NOAA CPC official ENSO strength probabilities · Strength outlook · Method

What to watch where you are

Houston

U.S. Gulf Coast (Texas to Florida)

Historically in this region:

  • Often wetter: El Niño cold seasons have more often been wetter than average along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida.
  • Often cooler: El Niño Dec-Feb periods have more often been cooler than average along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Historical patterns for this region: not a forecast for this winter.

King tides

NOAA predicted highs for the next year at five king-tide stations. Bars show each month's peak; dashed line is the NOS minor flood threshold when NOAA publishes one.

Next 12 months (predicted): Oct 2026 to Sep 2027

Miami

Highest expected tide each month at Virginia Key, FLOct: highest expected tide 13.11 ft, below the street-flood level; Nov: highest expected tide 12.93 ft, below the street-flood level; Dec: highest expected tide 12.60 ft, below the street-flood level; Jan: highest expected tide 12.41 ft, below the street-flood level; Feb: highest expected tide 12.41 ft, below the street-flood level; Mar: highest expected tide 12.52 ft, below the street-flood level; Apr: highest expected tide 12.53 ft, below the street-flood level; May: highest expected tide 12.49 ft, below the street-flood level; Jun: highest expected tide 12.47 ft, below the street-flood level; Jul: highest expected tide 12.50 ft, below the street-flood level; Aug: highest expected tide 12.88 ft, below the street-flood level; Sep: highest expected tide 13.20 ft, below the street-flood levelOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

Bar height is compressed so the street-flood line stays on the chart.

Gauge 8723214, Virginia Key, FL. Heights are in feet on NOAA's station datum (STND). Street-flood level: 14.07 ft.

27 Oct 2026, around 10:31 local time: one of the highest tides of the year.

Fort Lauderdale

Highest expected tide each month at South Port EvergladesOct: highest expected tide 27.86 ft; Nov: highest expected tide 27.74 ft; Dec: highest expected tide 27.43 ft; Jan: highest expected tide 27.20 ft; Feb: highest expected tide 27.08 ft; Mar: highest expected tide 27.16 ft; Apr: highest expected tide 27.13 ft; May: highest expected tide 27.10 ft; Jun: highest expected tide 27.09 ft; Jul: highest expected tide 27.12 ft; Aug: highest expected tide 27.49 ft; Sep: highest expected tide 27.87 ftOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

Bar height uses a logarithmic scale.

Gauge 8722956, South Port Everglades. Heights are in feet on NOAA's station datum (STND).

26 Oct 2026 through 28 Oct 2026. The highest tide in that stretch is 27 Oct 2026, around 09:40 local time: one of the highest tides of the year.

San Diego

Highest expected tide each month at San Diego, CAOct: highest expected tide 10.89 ft, below the street-flood level; Nov: highest expected tide 11.24 ft, below the street-flood level; Dec: highest expected tide 11.35 ft, below the street-flood level; Jan: highest expected tide 11.20 ft, below the street-flood level; Feb: highest expected tide 10.69 ft, below the street-flood level; Mar: highest expected tide 9.90 ft, below the street-flood level; Apr: highest expected tide 10.13 ft, below the street-flood level; May: highest expected tide 10.45 ft, below the street-flood level; Jun: highest expected tide 10.91 ft, below the street-flood level; Jul: highest expected tide 11.24 ft, below the street-flood level; Aug: highest expected tide 11.34 ft, below the street-flood level; Sep: highest expected tide 10.51 ft, below the street-flood levelOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

Bar height uses a logarithmic scale.

Gauge 9410170, San Diego, CA. Heights are in feet on NOAA's station datum (STND). Street-flood level: 11.38 ft.

23 Dec 2026 through 24 Dec 2026. The highest tide in that stretch is 24 Dec 2026, around 08:29 local time: one of the highest tides of the year.

Newport Beach

Highest expected tide each month at Newport Beach, Newport Bay EntranceOct: highest expected tide 9.99 ft; Nov: highest expected tide 10.35 ft; Dec: highest expected tide 10.50 ft; Jan: highest expected tide 10.37 ft; Feb: highest expected tide 9.90 ft; Mar: highest expected tide 9.09 ft; Apr: highest expected tide 9.27 ft; May: highest expected tide 9.62 ft; Jun: highest expected tide 10.07 ft; Jul: highest expected tide 10.41 ft; Aug: highest expected tide 10.49 ft; Sep: highest expected tide 9.54 ftOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

Bar height uses a logarithmic scale.

Gauge 9410580, Newport Beach, Newport Bay Entrance. Heights are in feet on NOAA's station datum (STND).

23 Dec 2026 through 24 Dec 2026. The highest tide in that stretch is 24 Dec 2026, around 08:26 local time: one of the highest tides of the year.

Myrtle Beach

Highest expected tide each month at Springmaid Pier, SCOct: highest expected tide 36.16 ft, below the street-flood level; Nov: highest expected tide 36.13 ft, below the street-flood level; Dec: highest expected tide 35.84 ft, below the street-flood level; Jan: highest expected tide 35.57 ft, below the street-flood level; Feb: highest expected tide 35.30 ft, below the street-flood level; Mar: highest expected tide 35.41 ft, below the street-flood level; Apr: highest expected tide 35.53 ft, below the street-flood level; May: highest expected tide 35.64 ft, below the street-flood level; Jun: highest expected tide 35.83 ft, below the street-flood level; Jul: highest expected tide 35.92 ft, below the street-flood level; Aug: highest expected tide 36.00 ft, below the street-flood level; Sep: highest expected tide 36.16 ft, below the street-flood levelOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

Bar height is compressed so the street-flood line stays on the chart.

Gauge 8661070, Springmaid Pier, SC. Heights are in feet on NOAA's station datum (STND). Street-flood level: 36.75 ft.

27 Oct 2026 through 28 Oct 2026. The highest tide in that stretch is 27 Oct 2026, around 08:36 local time: one of the highest tides of the year.

Full king tides →

NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions

A record-chasing El Niño: what the world wrote this week (5–12 October 2026)

This week the El Niño story moved from "it could be historic" to "how do we measure a record?"

This week's roundup

How to read this

The big sentence is the official season: phase and strength from RONI. The number next to Official season (RONI) is that same stored value, with the CPC RONI file linked beside it. A latest week or latest month Niño 3.4 line, when the store has one, is a separate ocean pulse and is not the official season. Pick your location, then read historical watch lines for that region. The chart is proof of recent Pacific seasons; not a forecast for this winter.

Full method →

More regions →