El Niño 2027: will it last into next year or fade by spring?
The short answer
NOAA's official outlook gives El Niño an 85% chance of lasting through spring 2027 (March–May 2027), so lasting into 2027 is likely. Further out, the odds tilt toward a fade: for May–July 2027, neutral conditions have the best odds at 70% (El Niño 17%, neutral 70%, La Niña 13%). The chance of a strong or very strong El Niño (index at least 1.5°C) in January–March 2027 is 83%.
Source: NOAA CPC official ENSO outlook issued October 2026. CPC updates the outlook monthly; this page re-reads it with the site's daily NOAA refresh.
Latest official season (RONI, JAS 2026): 1.69°C, strong El Niño. Latest weekly Niño 3.4 reading (7 Oct 2026): 3.3°C. See the live dashboard.
NOAA's odds, season by season
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) publishes official chances for El Niño, neutral and La Niña conditions for each overlapping three-month season. Read across a row to see how the odds move from winter into spring and summer 2027.
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| September–November 2026 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| October–December 2026 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| November 2026–January 2027 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| December 2026–February 2027 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| January–March 2027 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| February–April 2027 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| March–May 2027 | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| April–June 2027 | 45% | 54% | 1% |
| May–July 2027 | 17% | 70% | 13% |
What usually comes after a strong El Niño
Strong El Niño events tend to peak around November to January and weaken through the following spring. What happens next varies, but in NOAA's record the following winter has most often been La Niña, and sometimes neutral.
Since 1950, NOAA's RONI record has 8 strong El Niño winters (peak at or above 1.5°C). The winter after was La Niña 5 times, neutral 2 times and El Niño again 1 time.
| Strong El Niño | Peak | Next spring | Next winter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 1.89°C | 0.95°C (El Niño) | 1958–59: Weak El Niño (0.64°C) |
| 1965–66 | 1.99°C | 0.59°C (El Niño) | 1966–67: Neutral (-0.22°C) |
| 1972–73 | 1.97°C | -0.17°C (Neutral) | 1973–74: Strong La Niña (-1.91°C) |
| 1982–83 | 2.40°C | 1.30°C (El Niño) | 1983–84: Weak La Niña (-0.96°C) |
| 1991–92 | 2.12°C | 1.76°C (El Niño) | 1992–93: Neutral (0.35°C) |
| 1997–98 | 2.28°C | 0.81°C (El Niño) | 1998–99: Strong La Niña (-1.61°C) |
| 2009–10 | 1.50°C | 0.10°C (Neutral) | 2010–11: Strong La Niña (-1.55°C) |
| 2015–16 | 2.25°C | 0.65°C (El Niño) | 2016–17: Weak La Niña (-0.89°C) |
Every El Niño is different. Past years show what has happened before, not what will happen in winter 2027–28. More on each year: Past El Niño winters and Is this the strongest El Niño ever?
What it can mean for US weather in winter and spring 2027
With El Niño favored to stay in place through early 2027, the usual El Niño winter tendencies apply to January–March 2027. In past strong El Niño winters, NOAA composites often showed:
- Gulf Coast and Southeast: wetter and cooler than average more often than not, one of the most reliable US signals. See Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Atlanta, US Gulf Coast and Southeast and southern tier.
- Southern California and the Southwest: above-average winter rain more often in strong events, though not every strong year delivered. See Los Angeles, Phoenix, Southern California and US Southwest.
- Pacific Northwest and northern states: milder, often drier winters with less snow, a less reliable signal. See Seattle, Pacific Northwest, Northern US, Northern Rockies and Alaska.
- Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: drier than average more often in stronger events. See Cincinnati and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
- Mid-Atlantic: a modest tilt toward snowier winters in some composites. See Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic and Appalachians.
- Northern California: no clear wet or dry tilt. See San Francisco.
- Hawaii: drier than average from late fall into early spring more often. See Honolulu and Hawaii.
As El Niño fades in spring, these tilts usually weaken. If La Niña follows in late 2027, as it has after several past strong events, the pattern for winter 2027–28 would tend to flip: drier across the southern US and wetter in the Pacific Northwest. All of these are tendencies, not guarantees.
King tides and coastal flooding into 2027
NOAA's annual high tide flooding outlook notes that El Niño can increase high tide flooding during the cool season (October to April), with the Pacific Coast and the Mid-Atlantic most affected. Warmer water and higher local sea levels can push king tides over street-flood levels more often, while long-term sea level rise remains the main driver.
See NOAA's predicted king tides through 2027 for San Diego, Newport Beach, Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Myrtle Beach, or the full king tides calendar.