5–12 October 2026

A record-chasing El Niño: what the world wrote this week (5–12 October 2026)

This week the El Niño story moved from "it could be historic" to "how do we measure a record?" Forecasters in the US, Japan and at the UN all put out fresh updates within a few days of each other. The press mostly asked three questions: how strong is it really, who gets hurt first, and what does it mean for this winter's weather. Below is a roundup of what was published, grouped by theme, with every claim linked to its source, followed by NOAA's latest ENSO numbers.

1. Record territory, and a fight over the yardstick

• NOAA raised its odds of a historic event. On 8 October the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said El Niño "continues to strengthen" and gave an 83% chance of an event stronger than anything since 1950 (+2.5°C or more on the 3-month RONI index) for October–December. That chance is 54% for September–November and 70% for November–January. CPC also reported monthly values of +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3 and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2 (CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 Oct). The Boston Globe pointed out that this is up from 75% a month earlier.
• Japan says a record has already been set. The Japan Meteorological Agency's 9 October outlook said the NINO.3 region was +4.0°C above normal in September. JMA says that beats the previous record of +3.6°C from December 1997 (records began in 1949), and that the strongest El Niño conditions are "virtually certain (100%)" to continue into boreal winter (JMA/TCC El Niño Outlook, 9 Oct).
• The WMO expects a peak around December. The World Meteorological Organization's 8 October seasonal update forecasts an October–December average Niño 3.4 anomaly of about +3.7°C, peaking around December. It calls this "the highest since observations began", above the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015–January 2016. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly" (WMO, 8 Oct).
• Why the numbers don't match. weather.com explained that on the old daily "oceanic Niño index" this would already be an all-time record. NOAA officially uses 3-month averages of the newer relative index (RONI), which strips out background ocean warming, and those values were "still not at record levels through August." The Boston Globe reported daily readings "topping 3.4 degrees Celsius above normal" and quoted UCLA's Daniel Swain: "The warning lights are flashing."
• Close to the peak? NOAA's GFDL lab said on 7 October that its SPEAR model shows "this historic El Niño is nearing its peak," with weakening expected by early winter and a likely return to neutral in spring or early summer. It added that the forecast is "stronger than any observed in at least 30 years" (GFDL, 7 Oct).

2. Drought, floods and hunger: the human cost is starting

• Children in the firing line. UN News reported a new UNICEF analysis: more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories could face unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December because of El Niño (UN News, 6 Oct).
• Papua New Guinea is already feeling it. The same report says about 1.2 million people in Papua New Guinea are estimated to need direct food relief. The government has approved a $112 million supplementary budget, and the largest farm and food impacts are expected from November (UN News, 6 Oct).
• Food-security early warning. The US-funded famine early warning network FEWS NET published its first 2026–27 El Niño special report this month. Unimodal East Africa and Southern Africa are of "highest concern" for drought. The Horn of Africa faces heavy rain and flood risk in October–December, with concern highest along Somalia's Shabelle and Juba rivers. FEWS NET also notes that the worst food insecurity usually arrives in the following lean season, not during the rains themselves (FEWS NET special report, Oct 2026).
• Where rain shifts. WMO's update says drier-than-normal conditions are forecast over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America and northwestern South America. Wetter conditions are more likely in the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America (WMO, 8 Oct).

3. America's winter: a soggy California and a near-silent hurricane season

• California keeps getting wetter on paper. The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the European seasonal model's December–March forecast now runs at nearly double normal rainfall in San Francisco and San Jose, and at 263% of normal in San Diego. For San Francisco, 50 of the model's 51 runs come out wetter than normal (SF Chronicle, 6 Oct).
• Rain numbers for cities. The San Luis Obispo Tribune / Sacramento Bee, using the NMME and SEAS5 models, said most populated parts of California look set for at least 150% of normal winter rain. San Francisco would get 24–28 inches against a normal of about 15 (SLO Tribune, 8–9 Oct).
• The Atlantic has gone quiet. weather.com noted that Isaias did not reach hurricane strength until late on 7 October, the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the satellite era (since 1966). The Atlantic has had nine named storms but only one hurricane this season, while the eastern and central Pacific have had 16 storms, four of them major hurricanes (weather.com, 8 Oct).
• The usual caution. NOAA's Erica Grow Cei told weather.com that "daily and weekly changes in sea-surface temperature are not tied to El Niño impacts over the United States." She added that the US effects generally spread from December through March (weather.com, 8 Oct).

4. Markets: cocoa, sugar and coffee on watch

• Hedgepoint Global Markets' quarterly outlook, reported by Revista Cultivar, says sugar and cocoa are the most exposed to weather-related supply risk. Coffee faces downward price pressure as Brazil's record harvest arrives (Revista Cultivar, 8 Oct).
• Cocoa prices fell toward $5,500 on 7 October after reports of rain returning in western Côte d'Ivoire. Expana analyst Andrew Moriarty put Ecuador's possible losses at 40,000–50,000 tonnes if excessive rainfall continues into early 2027 (CocoaIntel, 8 Oct).

NOAA's latest numbers

Latest published weekly figures (CPC weekly ENSO update, 5 October 2026; this section will be updated when CPC posts its 12 October edition):

• ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
• "El Niño is present." Equatorial SSTs are above average across the east-central and eastern Pacific, and the atmosphere is "consistent with El Niño."
• Latest weekly SST departures: Niño 4: 0.1ºC · Niño 3.4: 2.3ºC · Niño 3: 3.3ºC · Niño 1+2: 4.5ºC
• Most recent RONI value (July–September 2026): 1.7ºC
• Upper-ocean heat anomalies are above average, and the thermocline slope index is below average.

Latest monthly figures (CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026): Niño-3.4 +2.1°C, Niño-3 +3.0°C, Niño-1+2 +3.9°C. Chance of a historic event (+2.5°C or more, 3-month RONI): 54% Sep–Nov, 83% Oct–Dec, 70% Nov–Jan. Next discussion: 12 November 2026.